Unexpected Victory: Thailand's Election Surprises With Bhumjaithai's Triumph

Fri Feb 13 2026 03:13:28 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

In a stunning twist, the Bhumjaithai party led by Anutin Charnvirakul emerges victorious in Thailand's recent elections, leaving the anticipated winners, the People's Party, in the dust.

Amid the aftermath of Thailand's fiercely contested election, the Bhumjaithai party has secured an unexpected win, shattering the predictions of pre-election polls that favored the progressive People's Party. With over 190 parliamentary seats, Anutin Charnvirakul's party is positioned to form the next government. The election results reflect a significant shift in voter sentiment, highlighting challenges faced by reformist parties. As coalition discussions begin, the future of Thailand's political landscape remains uncertain amidst ongoing debates over nationalism and reform.

As the dust from what has been a hard-fought election campaign in Thailand settles, many Thais may be rubbing their eyes and asking, what just happened?.

Most of the opinion polls published before the election predicted a win for the progressive People's Party. Some suggested it would get more than 200 seats in parliament, a significant improvement on its already impressive 2023 result when it won 151. Few polls put the party of Prime Minister Anutin Chanrvirakul ahead.

Yet once most of the votes had been counted, it was clear Anutin had achieved a stunning victory, and the young reformists had suffered a big setback. With a projected share of more than 190 seats, the path of Anutin's Bhumjaithai party is clear to form the next government, albeit with coalition partners.

So why did a youthful, progressive party with an imaginative and tech-savvy campaign do so poorly compared to a transactional, old-style party with little ideological identity aside from strong loyalty to the monarchy?

A harder race for the reformists

The mixed voting system played a part. People in Thailand cast two ballots, one for a candidate in their constituency, and one for the party they prefer.

At the national level the People's Party, with nearly 10 million votes, did much better in the party list than Bhumjaithai, with just under six million votes, although this was still a big drop compared to the more than 14 million Move Forward, the previous incarnation of the People's Party, won in 2023. However, the party list accounts for only 20% of the 500 seats in parliament.

As many as 80% of the seats are allocated by local contests, where whichever candidate gets the most votes in each constituency wins the seat on a first-past-the-post basis. This is where the People's Party, which is relatively new and urban-based, is weaker because it lacks rural networks.

Bhumjaithai, by comparison, is adept at using its substantial resources to win local power-brokers to its side, who exert significant influence over voters in their areas.

Anutin has used the defections of political veterans from other parties to grow Bhumjaithai from a medium-sized provincial movement which won only 51 seats in 2019, to a national-level election-winning powerhouse today.

It was also harder for the reformists to distinguish themselves on a single issue this time. In 2023, after nine years of governance by the stern, protective Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 2014 coup, there was a broad yearning for change, and the Move Forward party, under its charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat, captured public imagination with promises of no deals with the military junta. This time, the lack of a defining issue and the fallout from their attempt to amend the contentious lese majeste law hampered their campaign.

Anutin was successful in rallying conservative support around his party this election, as opposed to the fragmented right-wing votes seen in 2023. His strong nationalism regarding border tensions with Cambodia, staunch military support, and fervent loyalty to the monarchy reinforced his position as a conservative standard-bearer.

Additionally, the decline of Pheu Thai, once a dominant political force backed by ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, significantly impacted the election. After failing to maintain its previous momentum and facing legal and leadership crises, its support eroded, allowing Bhumjaithai and other parties to fill the vacuum.

The fallout from backing Anutin Charnvirakul for prime minister last September now looms over reformists. Although the decision to form a coalition was justified at the time as a strategic move to institute constitutional reforms, it led to perceptions of compromised integrity among their base.

Now, reformist leaders face challenges including political bans and disenfranchisement, raising questions over their viability moving forward. With an election turnout of only 65%, down from 75% in 2023, doubts linger about the future of reform in Thai politics if current trends continue.

As for Anutin, if he secures alliances with smaller parties, he may yet achieve what no civilian leader has for two decades: a complete four-year term. The effects of Thailand's dynamic political climate are unfolding, and the coming months will be critical in shaping its trajectory.