In brief
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party captured 438 of 501 contested seats, securing an overwhelming majority despite concerns over security, opposition boycotts and limited participation from key regions. Unrest remains high in the Amhara and Oromia provinces where Fano militants and the Oromo Liberation Army rejected the outcome, and in Tigray where the ruling Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front has not fully accepted the settlement and is accused of recruiting youths. Regional tensions also flare with Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of imperial ambition and aligning with Tigrayan forces, while Addis Ababa’s involvement in Sudan’s civil war deepens distrust. While the EU and the US urge de-escalation, analysts warn that a fragile peace could yet collapse into another wave of violence. The upcoming months will determine whether Abiy can consolidate power and address lingering conflicts or whether the country slides into renewed instability.
In a boost to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political standing, the Prosperity Party captured 438 of 501 contested seats in Ethiopia’s recent election, paving the way for a new government to form and for Abiy’s swearing‑in at the start of October. The outcome was hailed by supporters who say it will sustain the economic gains the country has seen under his leadership.
Yet the election was marred by conflict, accusations of repression, and a low turnout from opposition‑led regions. In the Amhara and Oromia provinces, Fano militants and the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army rejected the vote and called it illegitimate, while security concerns caused 143 polling stations to remain closed in the country’s two largest regions.
Tigray – still reeling from a two‑year civil war that ended in 2022 – excluded the six million residents of its 38 constituencies, leaving the region and its people effectively unrepresented. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front has not fully embraced the peace deal signed in November 2022; it is accused of recruiting youths and of threatening a return to hostilities against Addis Ababa.
Eritrea, whose coastline was lost when it became independent in 1993, has criticised Ethiopia’s perceived imperial ambitions and has sided with Tigray in recent statements. Addis Ababa’s alleged support for factions in Sudan’s civil war, particularly the Rapid Support Forces, further fuels regional unease.
The European Union has called for immediate de‑escalation in northern Ethiopia, while the United States announced visa restrictions targeting key TPLF figures and their families for undermining peace efforts. Though experts say an immediate return to war is unlikely, they warn of a “dangerous scenario” given the polarised politics and the potential for wider regional conflict.
The forthcoming months will be critical for Ethiopia’s future: whether Abiy can consolidate his power to bring lasting peace or whether escalating tensions will lead to renewed violence remains a key question for the region and for international observers seeking stability on the African continent.
