The U.S. appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not.

So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order U.S. forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy

U.S. air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and infrastructure linked to its nuclear program. The regime, already weakened, is overthrown, leading to a transition to democracy. However, history has shown that this optimism may be misguided, as past U.S. interventions have led to chaos rather than stability.

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies

The regime adopts the 'Venezuelan model,' remaining in power but forced to moderate its aggressive stance. While the U.S. intervention forces some concessions, the regime's durability suggests that significant change is unlikely.

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule

As protests continue to escalate, the regime could fall, leading to military rule dominated by the IRGC, thus prolonging instability amid internal strife.

4. Iran retaliates by attacking U.S. forces and neighbors

Vowing retaliation, Iran may use its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones to target U.S. forces stationed in nearby Gulf nations. Such actions could escalate into wider regional conflict.

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

By mining essential shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could directly threaten global oil supplies, leading to an immediate spike in prices and international tensions.

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a U.S. warship

The theoretical scenario of a swarm attack on U.S. vessels could lead to a devastating defeat for the U.S. Navy, resulting in significant geopolitical humiliation.

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos

A total collapse could create a power vacuum, leading to civil strife and sectarian violence, further destabilizing the region and creating a humanitarian crisis.

With tensions at an all-time high, the most significant concern remains that President Trump, feeling pressured to act, could initiate military action without a clear strategy for aftermath, sparking an unpredictable and destructive conflict.