Once again the boom of artillery, rockets, and air strikes sounds along the Thai-Cambodian border. Villages in a corridor stretching for hundreds of kilometers have been evacuated for a second time in five months. Families and their pets sit on mats in temporary shelters, wondering when they can go home, and when they might be forced to flee yet again.
Why has this happened so soon after the ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump in July? It was ignited by a seemingly minor incident on Sunday, when a Thai engineering team working on an access road in the disputed area of the border was, according to the Thai army, fired on by Cambodian troops. Two Thai soldiers were injured, neither seriously.
In the past, this might have been settled by some fleet-footed diplomacy. But there has been little of that this year. Instead, a yawning gulf of mistrust lies between these two neighbors, one even Trump's deal-making prowess has failed to bridge.
Despite Trump claiming to have struck a historic peace deal, the ceasefire was always tenuous, with Thailand uneasy about internationalizing the border conflict. Cambodia, however, is keen to welcome outside intervention due to its perceived disadvantage.
Following the ceasefire, both sides continued to maneuver around key positions, with Thailand hoping to inflict sufficient damage on Cambodian forces to ensure national security. As fighting escalated, around half a million people have been evacuated on both sides.
The motivations behind Cambodian leadership’s actions appear complex, led by former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has been portraying the conflict as bullying carried out by Thailand.
As the conflict resurges, questions remain about future diplomatic efforts. It seems unlikely that peace can be secured unless significant actions are taken to de-escalate military positioning and end landmine placements along the border.
In a stark conclusion, it appears that while talks of resolution might surface, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia remains fragile, with tensions simmering and the potential for future hostilities looming large.
