The Israeli air strike that killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, has removed one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policymakers at a critical moment.

Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions. As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he sat at the heart of decision-making on war, diplomacy, and national security.

His voice carried weight across the system, particularly in managing Iran's confrontation with the United States and Israel.

After the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, Larijani struck a defiant tone, signalling that Iran was prepared for a long conflict.

His death, now confirmed by state media, comes amid a broader campaign in which several senior Iranian officials and commanders have been killed within a matter of weeks. This suggests a sustained effort to weaken Iran's leadership structure during wartime.

Despite his hardline stance against the West, Larijani was often described inside Iran as a pragmatist. He combined ideological loyalty with a technocratic approach, favouring calculated strategy over rhetoric.

He remained deeply sceptical of engagement with Western powers but was involved in key diplomatic efforts, including acting as an envoy in Iran's long-term cooperation agreement with China.

At the time of his death, Larijani was managing three major crises:

  • The ongoing war, advocating for prolonged engagement, including potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A wave of domestic unrest, initially economic, which evolved into widespread protests against the regime.
  • Iran's nuclear programme and stalled negotiations with Washington, disrupted by military strikes.

His removal complicates these issues for a yet-to-be-determined successor in an already fragile situation. Future leaders are now at risk, too, of becoming targets. The likely outcome in the short term is a more volatile environment, with predictions of a hardened military approach in the war alongside stricter repression domestically.

As the country responds to both external and internal pressures, the impact of Larijani's death signifies more than just the loss of a singular official; it deepens a leadership crisis that could significantly influence both the conflict’s trajectory and Iran's overall stability.