The Great Barrier Reef is headed for a grim future and will suffer a rapid coral decline by 2050 but parts may recover if global warming is kept below 2°C, a new study has found. Researchers at the University of Queensland (UQ) used modelling to simulate the lifecycles of certain coral species and found that some were better at adapting to warmer oceans and could help new coral grow. Reefs near cooler-water currents were also more resilient, giving a glimmer of hope to the natural wonder, which has suffered severe climate-induced heat stress in recent years. The study warned that curbing carbon emissions was crucial to allowing coral to recover and avoid a near collapse of the reef.
Dr. Yves-Marie Bozec, who led the research, said the modelling of more than 3,800 individual reefs that comprise the Great Barrier Reef looked at their eco-evolutionary dynamics. This included how corals interact with each other and how they endure warmer water and proximity to naturally cooler areas.
We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections - and the news was not good, he stated. We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.
Stretching over 2,300 km (1,400 miles) off Australia's north-east coast, the Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’s most biodiverse ecosystems. It has endured major marine heatwaves between 2016 and 2022, resulting in a significant expulsion of the algae that sustains coral, leading to its bleaching.
Recent reports indicated that parts of the reef have experienced the largest annual decline in coral cover recorded in nearly four decades.
Dr. Bozec emphasized that while some coral parts may partially recover after 2050, this hinges on sufficiently slow ocean warming that allows natural adaptation to temperature changes. He highlighted the need for global action to reduce carbon emissions to meet the Paris Agreement targets and prevent severe climate impacts. The window for meaningful action is closing rapidly, but it hasn't shut yet. If global warming is limited to 2°C by 2100, many reefs could persist.
In summary, the potential for recovery exists, but immediate and collective efforts must be made to curtail emissions and protect this critical ecosystem.
Dr. Yves-Marie Bozec, who led the research, said the modelling of more than 3,800 individual reefs that comprise the Great Barrier Reef looked at their eco-evolutionary dynamics. This included how corals interact with each other and how they endure warmer water and proximity to naturally cooler areas.
We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections - and the news was not good, he stated. We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.
Stretching over 2,300 km (1,400 miles) off Australia's north-east coast, the Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’s most biodiverse ecosystems. It has endured major marine heatwaves between 2016 and 2022, resulting in a significant expulsion of the algae that sustains coral, leading to its bleaching.
Recent reports indicated that parts of the reef have experienced the largest annual decline in coral cover recorded in nearly four decades.
Dr. Bozec emphasized that while some coral parts may partially recover after 2050, this hinges on sufficiently slow ocean warming that allows natural adaptation to temperature changes. He highlighted the need for global action to reduce carbon emissions to meet the Paris Agreement targets and prevent severe climate impacts. The window for meaningful action is closing rapidly, but it hasn't shut yet. If global warming is limited to 2°C by 2100, many reefs could persist.
In summary, the potential for recovery exists, but immediate and collective efforts must be made to curtail emissions and protect this critical ecosystem.
