In brief
In October, the Australian national median house price fell 1.2 percent, a 6.7 percent drop from the March peak, the fastest rate of decline in forty years. The downturn accelerated to 1.4 percent nationwide and 2.0 percent in Brisbane, while all capital markets saw a 4.5 percent quarterly decline. Analysts cite higher interest rates, low confidence, cost‑of‑living pressures and policy changes; the Reserve Bank’s next meeting will decide if the slide continues.
Australian house prices fell for the seventh consecutive month in October, with the national median price dropping 1.2 percent, Cotality said on Monday, noting the decline has now stretched to 6.7 percent from its March peak, the fastest pace in forty years. The data, released by the Chinese news agency Xinhua, came as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash‑rate target to a 15‑year high of 4.6 percent after a fourth tightening in 2026.
The monthly fall was driven by a 1.4 percent decline in the median price of capital‑city homes, a step up from the 1.2 percent drop in September. Brisbane eclipsed Sydney as the city with the steepest decline, recording a 2.0 percent drop in median house prices and becoming the fastest‑decreasing capital in the country.
On a quarterly basis, Cotality said median prices across all capitals fell 4.5 percent, a significant slide that underscores the breadth of the downturn. The data also showed that median prices in the nation’s capital hubs declined 4.5 percent over the last quarter, underscoring the systemic nature of the fall.
Tim Lawless, Cotality’s research director, attributed the downturn to an array of headwinds. He cited the Reserve Bank’s rate hikes, persistently low consumer confidence, cost‑of‑living pressures and the federal government’s decision to wind back tax concessions for property investors as key drivers of the decline.
Following the September rate hike, the Board is scheduled to meet again on Monday and Tuesday to consider the key interest rate. All four major banks have issued forecasts that anticipate a fifth rise to an 18‑year high of 4.85 percent, though no decision has yet been made.
Market observers note that the steepening pace in October signals a shift in housing sentiment, as buyers face higher borrowing costs and growing uncertainty. Analysts expect cooling in demand to persist unless the Bank accepts significant policy changes or economic fundamentals improve substantially.
The uncertainties highlighted by the sources center on the next monetary policy decision: whether the Reserve Bank will close the cycle with a fifth rate hike or pause to evaluate the market’s reaction. It remains unresolved how the decline will evolve in the coming months or whether a rebound will be triggered if rates stabilize or economic confidence improves.
