U.S. Population Growth Predictions Dim Amidst Aging and Immigration Policies

Fri Jan 09 2026 01:54:50 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

The Congressional Budget Office projects a smaller future U.S. population increase due to stringent immigration policies and an aging demographic, projecting a 2.2% decrease compared to last year's forecasts.

A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office indicates that the U.S. population is expected to grow by only 15 million over the next three decades, significantly less than previous estimates. Contributing factors include President Trump's tough immigration stance and the impacts of an aging population, leading to concerns about declining labor force growth and future social security funding.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. population is projected to grow by 15 million over the next 30 years, a revised estimate from prior years impacted significantly by President Donald Trump’s stringent immigration policies and an aging populace, according to a Wednesday report by the Congressional Budget Office.

The nonpartisan budget office anticipates that the U.S. population will reach 364 million by 2056, which is 2.2% smaller than predictions made a year prior. Earlier, in September, the office had indicated that Trump's immigration strategies, including mass deportations, may lead to approximately 320,000 individuals being removed from the country over the next decade.

The demographic trends suggest that the national population will halt growth by 2056, maintaining a roughly static size as projected for the previous year. Furthermore, without the influence of immigration, the population could begin to decline as early as 2030.

Even if immigration restrictions were to ease post-Trump’s administration, “it still creates a demographic shock,” stated William Frey, a prominent demographer at the Brookings Institution. Fewer immigrants in the labor market combined with ongoing pressures from an aging population on Social Security and Medicare could pose significant challenges, especially with all baby boomers set to be over 65 by the end of the decade.

Concerns surrounding fertility rates show a consistent long-term decline below replacement levels, ultimately reducing the number of births in the upcoming four-year period of Trump's second term, Frey suggested. The latest figures indicate that Trump’s administration has continued to push for a comprehensive campaign focused on mass deportation, impacting the overall demographic landscape drastically.

The report suggests that as immigration typically fluctuates, it is the wildcard in population estimates due to its unpredictable nature, contrasting with more stable birth and death rates. With immigration expected to show an increase of 2.8 million people in 2024 over the previous year, a considerable shift occurred following Trump's re-election in January 2025.

According to the Current Population Survey, projections indicate a decrease of 1.8 million immigrants from January to November 2025. However, the precision of these figures remains under examination by various experts questioning their accuracy.

Overall, the impacts of Trump’s policies have raised concerns over the potential labor gap and the future economic viability of essential social services given an aging population without the buffer of newcomer contributions to the demographic and labor market landscape.