Geert Wilders' anti-Islam Freedom party is facing a tight race in Wednesday's Dutch election, and even if he wins the vote his hopes of forming a new government appear minimal.
Wilders was the clear winner last time Dutch voters went to the polls in November 2023, but final opinion polls hours before the vote suggest a fall in his support.
Dutch voters are grappling with a series of crises, from a chronic housing shortage to overcrowded asylum centres. The cost of living is rising with sky-high rents and healthcare costs.
Unlike last time, Wilders' rivals are refusing to work with him after he brought down his own coalition government last June.
Voting at most of the country's more than 10,000 polling stations starts at 07:30 local time (06:30 GMT) on Wednesday and ends at 21:00 (20:00 GMT).
Commentators believe it is more important who comes second in the vote than first, as it could decide who will form the next government.
Even if Wilders' party comes top, the next Dutch government is more likely to come from the centre left or centre right.
The race is wide open, and more than a third of Dutch voters were seen as undecided on the eve of the election.
It's one of the most important elections, because people need to have their faith restored, says Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University.
As many as 15 parties are set to win a share of parliament's 150 seats, but opinion polls suggest four will stand out. Apart from Wilders' PVV, there is GreenLeft-Labour under ex-EU top official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten's liberal D66 and the centre-right Christian Democrats of Henri Bontenbal.
For almost half of Dutch voters, the housing crisis is the top priority, with a shortage of almost 400,000 homes in a population of 18 million. Housing has taken centre stage in TV debates ahead of Wednesday's vote, with most parties vowing to tackle the issue head-on.
Unemployment hit 4% last month, signaling growing anxiety among workers about job security. With Wilders's previous stronger grip on radical and moderate right-leaning voters weakening, the potential for a shift in coalition power looms, leaving Dutch political dynamics on a knife-edge as the elections draw near.