In brief
NBC and Reuters projections see Democratic challenger Annie Andrews defeating Republican Darline Graham in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, a rare win that would shift the bipartisan balance. The victory hinges on voter discontent with President Trump and a spending war over the seat, but the final certification is still pending.
In an election that could reshape the United States Senate, NBC News projected Tuesday evening that South Carolina’s Senate seat would flip to Democrats as pediatrician Annie Andrews defeated appointed Republican Darline Graham, the first Democratic win in the state in 28 years.
This projection, echoed by Reuters, comes two days after the November 4 general election and marks the first time since 1998 that a Democrat has won a statewide Senate contest in South Carolina.
Campaign dynamics and voter sentiment
Graham, who succeeded her late brother, longtime senator Lindsey Graham, was appointed earlier this year to fill the vacancy created by his brother’s death. Trump had backed her in the special election, pushing her to run for a full six‑year term despite her low public profile and limited experience.
"Not that informed on national security," said Graham during her primary campaign.
Abstracting campaign finance, Andrews raised $22 million more than Graham. Democratic groups poured $24 million into flipping the seat, while Republican outside groups invested $27 million to hold it.
"Batshit crazy," Graham told supporters at a Trump rally last week.
Andrews’ line of questioning at the rally asked, “Is it crazy to want cheaper gas and groceries?”
Both the public’s repudiation of President Trump’s handling of the economy and the contentious nature of the campaign have contributed to an unprecedented “close” race in a state that Trump had carried by 18 percentage points two years earlier.
Despite the Trump endorsement for Graham, the race remains highly competitive, reflected in the final count: Andrews led in the projected margin, but the certification of the win has not yet occurred. The Nonconformist Monitor newsletter noted the presence of misinformation narratives around the election, but those do not alter the projected outcome.
Accordingly, the projected Democratic win edges the party one seat closer to a Senate majority, currently 53‑47 in favor of Republicans.
While the projections point to a decisive shift, the Washington Post acknowledged the official certification of the results, as well as potential recounts or challenges, still pending release by South Carolina election officials.
Ultimately, while analysts and media projections depict Andrews’ victory as a watershed moment, the definitive record of the election is contingent on the forthcoming certification and any subsequent legal review. The stance of these unresolved elements—official certification, potential recounts, and the final tally—remains as the only uncertainties surrounding the projected Senate seat flip in South Carolina.
