In brief
Scientists warn that the alarming temperature increases expected for 2024 underscore the critical need for immediate climate action, especially ahead of the UN climate conference, COP29.
As the year unfolds, the European climate service has declared that 2024 is "virtually certain" to become the hottest year on record, marked by extreme heatwaves and destructive storms. Global average temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—an alarming first for any calendar year. Human activities are primarily responsible for this significant temperature rise, with natural phenomena like the El Niño weather pattern also contributing to the trend.Experts stress that this record-breaking data serves as a wake-up call to world leaders attending COP29 in Azerbaijan next week. Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasized the critical need for governments to take immediate action to mitigate future warming. As the first ten months of 2024 have already witnessed unprecedented temperatures, experts assert that only an improbable and steep decline in weather patterns during the last two months could prevent setting a new record.Projections indicate that the year could end at a staggering 1.55°C above pre-industrial times, shattering the previous record of 1.48°C set just last year. Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of Copernicus, described this alarming trend as a significant milestone in global temperature records. If confirmed, this would represent the first instance in which a calendar year has exceeded the critical 1.5°C threshold, a benchmark established by nearly 200 nations in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to prevent the most devastating effects of climate change.Breaching the 1.5°C threshold for a single year does not invalidate the Paris agreement; the commitment aims to limit long-term temperature rises over roughly two decades. Nonetheless, yearly exceedances amplify the risk of prolonged temperature increases in the future. Just last month, the UN issued a grim warning that the globe could warm by over 3°C by century's end if existing policies remain unchanged.Key factors contributing to the alarming 2024 temperature rise include the current El Niño phenomenon, which began in mid-2023 and ended in April 2024. While it is anticipated that the onset of La Niña could temporarily cool temperatures next year, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain. Ed Hawkins, a climate professor at the University of Reading, highlighted concerns regarding the persistent elevation of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, establishing a reality where new records are likely imminent.Climate professionals note that rising temperatures correspond with more intense storms, scorching heatwaves, and severe rainfall—effects felt worldwide. To combat the escalating climate crisis, Professor Hawkins concluded that achieving net-zero emissions is crucial to halting further devastating impacts on communities globally.
