In brief
Copernicus predicts that 2026 will surpass the 1.5 °C warming threshold and be the second-warmest year on record. The forecast assigns a 20 % chance that 2026 could match or exceed 2024’s record, and notes that October set a new warmth benchmark. While the projection is robust, the long‑term threshold assessment remains uncertain.
In Brussels on 7 November 2026, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced that the coming calendar year is virtually certain to exceed 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial temperatures, making it the second year on record to surpass that threshold after 2024.
The forecast, released by Copernicus, assigns a 20 % probability that 2026 could tie or even exceed the record set in 2024, and indicates that the mean global temperature for the 2023‑2026 period will also be above 1.5 °C.
One of the most striking highlights of the assessment is that October 2026 was the warmest October on record worldwide, with an average surface‑air temperature 1.75 °C above pre‑industrial levels. The month marked the third straight occasion that global temperatures crossed the 1.5 °C line.
While the data show a clear upward trend, C3S notes that surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold in a single calendar year does not count as a formal breach of the long‑term temperature target, which is evaluated over sustained averages that span many years.
Industry analysts point out that the C3S projection is based on an ensemble of climate models, and caution that the long‑term assessment of whether the overall trend has permanently crossed the threshold remains pending, depending on future emissions pathways and feedback mechanisms.
Even if 2026 reaches or exceeds the 1.5 °C mark, Copernicus emphasizes that the significance lies in the speed of the warming rather than a single‑year event, as the rapid increase could have sweeping impacts on agriculture, sea‑level rise, and extreme weather patterns.
There remain uncertainty about whether 2026 will truly surpass 2024’s record, how the four‑year average will evolve, and what the ultimate long‑term temperature trajectory will be under different policy scenarios.
