North American Deal Looms Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Negotiators from Washington and Ottawa met for a third consecutive day in an attempt to close a trade pact that would curb the wave of tariffs the Trump administration had threatened against Canadian goods. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer said the progress had left the U.S. "very happy," and he promised a congressional briefing once the terms are finalized. However, officials admit most details – from which agricultural sectors will receive tariff relief to the extent of concessions on dairy, steel, and automobiles – remain unclear.

Canada has been pushing for the U.S. to slash or eliminate duties on its steel, aluminium, lumber and auto industries, while the U.S. seeks to reduce retaliatory tariffs and remove a ban on U.S. alcohol sales that Canadian provinces imposed last year. The Canadian dairy programme, including production quotas and price controls, is expected to stay in place, a move that has stirred mixed reactions among Canadian voters.

While business groups on both sides call for a swift agreement to prevent further economic damage, a Leger survey shows that 56% of Canadians favour a hardline stance against the U.S. If the deal finally materializes, it could reshape the North American trade landscape, extending the period of trade certainty beyond the current pause of 50% duties.

Both sides are reportedly reviewing the preliminary agreement before the final signing, signalling that the trade pact could soon move beyond the brink of crisis and into a more stable coexistence.