Xi Jinping Walks a Fine Line in Strengthening Ties with Putin

As China and Russia celebrate their longstanding partnership, President Xi Jinping's overtures toward President Vladimir Putin reveal both solidarity and caution in navigating global challenges.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made headlines with his close cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a recent visit to Moscow, showcasing a seemingly strong bond amid rising geopolitical tensions. Xi, seated at Putin's right during the Victory Day parade in Red Square, emphasized the “unbreakable” bond between their two nations, calling them “friends of steel.” This marks Xi's 11th visit to Russia since taking office in 2013, with the duo meeting over 40 times, including an autumn visit that Putin has already planned to make to China.

However, experts caution that this relationship is more nuanced than it appears. Mathieu Boulegue from the Center for European Policy Analysis noted that while Xi and Putin exhibit outward camaraderie, there are underlying competitive aspects that complicate their partnership. The close ties of China to Russia run the risk of isolating potential partners, particularly in light of Beijing’s efforts to balance its relationship with the West, especially as it confronts an increasingly assertive U.S. stance under former President Donald Trump.

Recent diplomatic talks between Xi and prominent European leaders such as Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa suggest that Xi is working to reinforce China's image as a stable global partner, contrasting sharply with the U.S. approach. Yet, the deep-seated support for Russia amidst its ongoing crisis in Ukraine casts a long shadow over China’s aspirations for stronger ties with Europe. Xi's reluctance to openly condemn the Russian invasion underscores the delicate position China occupies.

Furthermore, Xi is aware of the potential repercussions should he appear too closely aligned with Putin; such a stance could alienate Europe as it seeks favorable partnerships in this shifting global landscape. Messages aimed directly at the U.S. reaffirm the idea that any attempts to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow are in vain.

Despite the displays of unity, the stark reality reveals a shifting balance of power. Putin's ambitions are now hindered by a beleaguered economy and heavy sanctions forcing Russia to lean more on China for survival. Boulegue noted that “Russia needs China much more than the opposite is true,” suggesting that Xi's strategic navigation of this relationship will be crucial as both leaders seek to project a united front against perceived U.S. hegemony.

As the military parade concluded with grand displays of power, the smiles exchanged by Xi and Putin belied a complicated dynamic, filled with potential for discord as both countries continue to grapple with their contrasting aspirations on the world stage.