In brief
The Tajik government has projected 2027 state budget revenue at 80.1 billion somoni, up 23.2% from 2026, while earmarking 36.7 billion somoni for social spending. President Emomali Rahmon directed ministries to accelerate digitalization and broaden the tax base to meet the target. Future projections expect 90.2 billion somoni in 2028 and 104.6 billion somoni in 2029, though actual outcomes remain uncertain.
Tajikistan’s state budget revenue for 2027 is projected to rise 23.2 % from the 2026 figure, reaching 80.1 billion somoni—about 8.7 billion U.S. dollars—according to the presidential press service, announced on October 30, 2026 at a government meeting chaired by President Emomali Rahmon.
The meeting reviewed a draft state‑budget law for 2027 and also outlined projections for 2028 and 2029, showing expected revenues of 90.2 billion somoni in 2028 and 104.6 billion somoni in 2029.
Fiscal Projections
The 2027 forecast places social spending at 36.7 billion somoni, or 44.8 % of total budget expenditures, marking a significant allocation toward public services. The projected revenue figure is expressed at a conversion rate of one U.S. dollar to 9.21 somoni, giving an approximate dollar equivalent of 8.7 billion.
Policy Measures
In pursuit of the revenue target, President Rahmon instructed relevant ministries and agencies to undertake several measures, including advancing digitalization and electronic data exchange. He also urged a broadening of the tax base, clearing of tax arrears, an increase in domestic production, and a reduction in imports.
These initiatives are intended to expand revenue collection, streamline tax administration, and encourage economic activities that would generate additional fiscal income.
While the government outlines clear strategies to meet the target, the feasibility of fully implementing digital tools, broadening the tax base in a diverse economy, and creating additional domestic production capacity remains a subject of operational concern.
Furthermore, the revision of the tax policy will need to balance revenue goals with economic competitiveness, a trade‑off that officials have yet to detail. Ongoing monitoring will be required to assess whether the projections hold as the fiscal year approaches.
Additionally, the cooperation between ministries, the speed of bureaucratic reforms, and the response of businesses to incentives are all variables that could impact the final revenue figures. These elements remain unresolved as the government prepares to transition into the 2027 fiscal cycle.
