In brief
The SpaceX IPO set a record for the largest first offering, driving the share price from a $135 launch price up to $160 on the first day and even $225 in the following week. However, in the month since trading began, the price has fallen, leaving many retail investors looking at a potential loss. Analysts point to the company’s focus on AI through its acquisition of SpaceXAI and its large acquisition of the code‑generation start‑up Cursor as key factors of investor enthusiasm, but the core business remains a high‑cost, low‑margin venture into launches and satellite services. As the company prepares its first public earnings disclosure in early August, markets are awaiting clearer details of its revenue prospects and the effect of a post‑lock‑up sale period.
When SpaceX opened for trading in June, its share price spiked from a set price of $135 to beyond $160 on the first day, culminating a historic peak of $225 a few days later. This surge, described as an investor frenzy, made the company the largest IPO ever recorded.
The excitement was driven in part by Musk’s announced acquisition of SpaceXAI, the AI start‑up behind the controversial chatbot Grok, and the recent all‑stock purchase of the code‑generation start‑up Cursor at a value that would have netted Musk billions in free market value. Analysts see these moves as evidence of a future AI‑powered revenue engine.
Despite the early gains, the share price has slid since its debut, dropping 8 percent on a day when Starlink cut prices for a local data‑centre project and falling 4.4 percent after its addition to the Nasdaq100. By the end of its first month, the stock was trading near $145, roughly 18 percent below its launch high and 35 percent shy of the $225 peak.
Those who bought in during the initial surge now face potential paper losses. Keith Snyder of CFRA cautioned that early investors could already see a “meme‑stock‑like” downturn, predicting a future dip to $115 that would value SpaceX at around $1.5 trillion.
In light of the volatility, Morgan Stanley’s first coverage added a target of $300, a 33 percent jump from the current high, signalling optimism about the company’s prospects. Yet the firm’s analysts say the downturn is likely temporary; expectations are mounting for a detailed earnings report in early August and a post‑lock‑up sale of shares that could provide a clarifying market view.
With the company currently operating at a loss but projecting $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 – about 55 times last year’s $18 billion turnover – SpaceX’s future lies in balancing its costly launch business against the potential upside of its AI ventures.
