US Revisits Aukus Submarine Pact Amid Shifts in Administration Policy

The US defense review of the Aukus submarine deal with Australia and the UK emphasizes the need for alignment with the current administration's priorities. Despite concerns about military spending and management of submarines, both allies remain optimistic about future collaboration.

The United States has initiated a comprehensive review of its extensive submarine agreement with the UK and Australia, signaling a strategic pivot in line with the current administration's "America First" approach. Under this trilateral defense arrangement, aimed primarily at counterbalancing China's influence, Australia is set to acquire its first fleet of nuclear-powered submarines from the US while jointly developing cutting-edge technologies in the region.

The Aukus pact, valued at approximately £176 billion ($239 billion; A$368 billion), was established in 2021 when the three nations were led by different governments. While the review by the United States has raised concerns, both Australia and the UK have downplayed its significance, describing it as a routine reassessment process within the framework of a new administration.

Internationally, pressure mounts on Australia and the UK from the White House to increase their defense expenditures. While the UK government is committed to reaching 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2028 and 3% by the next parliament, Australia has been more hesitant, eyeing an increase without hitting the sought-after 3.5%.

Elbridge Colby, an outspoken critic of Aukus, will lead the review. He had previously questioned the wisdom of integrating such critical assets during times of escalating global tensions. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles expressed optimism regarding the deal's future, emphasizing Australia's security needs and long-range submarine capability.

An Australian government representative mentioned that it is expected for a new administration to scrutinize existing agreements, similar to actions taken by the UK last year. Support for Aukus spans the full political spectrum in the US, with assurances of continued cooperation between the nations.

However, analysts share concerns regarding the US's capacity to fulfill its existing submarine demands, with suggestions that the focus of the deal may shift towards sharing long-range weapons technology. Observers warn that a US withdrawal from the deal could lead to favorable conditions for China, which has historically critiqued Aukus.

For Australia, this agreement marks a significant enhancement of its military capabilities, positioning it as the second nation after the UK to gain access to advanced US nuclear propulsion technology. These submarines are set to outpace Australia's current capabilities, allowing for unprecedented long-range strike options.

Aukus facilitates closer military ties, enabling Australia to purchase second-hand Virginia-class submarines and eventually develop a new nuclear-powered submarine model with contributions from all three nations. As these geopolitical dynamics unfold, Beijing has raised alarms, suggesting that Aukus fosters an arms race in the region, heightening tensions in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic areas.