As the Vatican prepares for its first conclave with active online betting, experts grapple with the unpredictability of papal elections, prompting hefty wagers on the outcome.**
Online Oddsmakers Take Aim at Papal Conclave: An Unprecedented Bet**
Online Oddsmakers Take Aim at Papal Conclave: An Unprecedented Bet**
With the beginnings of the papal conclave, betting markets are buzzing as Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads the odds among potential successors.**
Wagering on who will ascend to the papacy has become a long-standing tradition, steeped in history since at least 1503. However, the upcoming conclave, starting Wednesday, marks a significant shift as online betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now direct attention to the Vatican’s complex election process.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy stands as the frontrunner with the highest odds to replace Pope Francis, despite recent, unverified reports regarding his health that did not significantly impact his position. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and fellow Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi are also considered strong contenders in this intriguing race to the papal throne.
While prediction markets had success predicting President Trump’s victory, analysts express skepticism over whether they can capture the intricacies of a conclave, often reminiscent of a high-stakes game of secrets. The closed-door nature of these meetings, involving roughly 133 cardinal electors bound by confidentiality, leaves bettors with little information beyond speculation.
“The unpredictability is immense, and prior favorites have consistently fallen,” cautions Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican expert. Economists suggest that unlike political elections with ample public discourse and polling data, the conclave’s secretive dynamics present a unique challenge for gamblers in assessing outcomes.
Indeed, the history of papal elections reveals a pattern of unexpected twists, where odds can shift suddenly based on behind-the-scenes maneuvering. As Stefano Maria Paci, a Vatican observer remarks, “One moment, something seems certain; the next, everything changes.”
Despite these challenges, betting operations report robust engagement, with wagers surpassing $27 million just days before the conclave's commencement, mirroring the financial frenzy typically seen around major sporting events such as the Super Bowl.
As the globe watches closely to see who will emerge from the Sistine Chapel, it’s clear that the excitement surrounding the conclave has ignited a remarkable new trend in wagering. This could well be dubbed "the world’s toughest gamble" — a complex, unpredictable endeavor that many are eager to bet on.
