Following the death of top Maoist leader Basavaraju in a decisive security operation, speculation grows about a possible end to India’s long-standing conflict with Maoists, as the government aims to eliminate the insurgency by 2026.
Is India's Prolonged Conflict with Maoists Finally Coming to a Close?
Is India's Prolonged Conflict with Maoists Finally Coming to a Close?
A major security operation has resulted in the death of a prominent Maoist leader, prompting speculation about the potential decline of a decades-old insurgency in India.
After years of conflict, could India's struggle against Maoists be nearing its conclusion? Recent events suggest significant shifts. Last week, India’s most-wanted Maoist, Nambala Keshava Rao, known as Basavaraju, was killed alongside 26 others during a critical security operation in Chhattisgarh. Home Minister Amit Shah hailed this as "the most decisive strike" against the insurgency in thirty years, although the encounter also claimed the life of a police officer.
Basavaraju’s demise is viewed as more than just a tactical win; it signifies a potential breach in the Maoists' last stronghold in Bastar, a region they have fortified since the 1980s. The armed Maoist movement, referred to as "Naxalites" after the historic uprising in Naxalbari village, has developed a "red corridor" stretching across much of central and eastern India. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh previously labeled this movement as India’s "greatest internal security threat."
Since the year 2000, nearly 12,000 lives have been lost due to the armed struggle for Communist governance, with rebels claiming to fight for marginalized indigenous tribes and the rural poor amid decades of neglect and land dispossession. The Maoist movement, formally established in 2004, emerged from the merger of various Marxist-Leninist factions under the Communist Party of India (Maoist)—the ideological roots trace back to a peasant uprising in 1946.
In recent trends, Chhattisgarh has emerged as the epicenter of Maoist violence. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi targeting the eradication of Maoism by March 2026, the battle appears to be at a tipping point. Some experts believe a lull may occur, drawing parallels to past recollections of Marxist movements that have adjusted through various challenges. N. Venugopal, a veteran journalist and observer, points out the resilience of these ideologies, while former top official MA Ganapathy argues that the ideological foundations are waning, especially among younger generations.
The federal home ministry recently reported a fall of 48% in violent incidents tied to Maoist activities from 2013 to 2023, alongside a 65% drop in fatalities. However, a slight uptick in security force casualties occurred due to more rigorous operations. Chhattisgarh accounted for approximately 63% of all Left-Wing Extremism incidents, while Jharkhand followed with a smaller share.
The shift in Chhattisgarh illustrates the evolving landscape of the insurgency. A decade ago, weaknesses in local police left them vulnerable, but improved state actions, backed by central forces and enhanced intelligence-gathering, are altering that narrative. Enhanced public connectivity through mobile technology has hindered the Maoists’ operational capabilities, as citizens adapt to modern realities and express limited interest in militant support.
While ongoing military operations have significantly degraded the Maoist military presence, it remains evident that isolated pockets of support persist in select areas. Critics highlight that the movement's leadership failed to build a cohesive political identity to solidify their influence. Historical aspirations of creating "liberated zones" now seem out of step with contemporary political dynamics.
Some, including Venugopal, argue for a strategy that blends traditional underground tactics with electoral politics to secure legitimacy and re-establish relevance. Meanwhile, Ganapathy suggests opportunities for the Maoists to negotiate peace, signaling a potential shift towards dialogue. Amid calls for ceasefires backed by various political parties in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the movement's historical legacy continues to gestate in the conflicts surrounding resource battles.
As Chhattisgarh's riches in minerals beckon new investment, the future of the Maoists remains uncertain. While the elimination of its leaders may create voids, underlying grievances may foster new forms of resistance, ensuring that the spirit of dissent persists, albeit perhaps under different banners in the long term.
