PARIS (FluxDaily) — France risks losing its third prime minister in just 12 months, as incumbent François Bayrou faces a parliamentary confidence vote on Monday that he instigated but is expected to lose. This vote could lead to further instability for the European Union’s second-largest economy.
The 74-year-old centrist prime minister, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron under nine months ago, is banking on the vote to unify a sharply divided National Assembly behind proposed public spending cuts that he argues are essential to curb France’s increasing state deficit and debts.
However, opposition lawmakers are vowing to exploit the situation to bring down Bayrou and his minority government, which consists of centrist and right-wing ministers. This could force Macron into yet another challenging search for a suitable replacement.
A Key Vote
The National Assembly, comprising 577 lawmakers, is interrupting its summer recess for this extraordinary session, which Bayrou requested. The session is set to begin at 3 p.m. (1300 GMT; 0900 EDT) Monday, where Bayrou will present his arguments advocating for necessary fiscal measures. Afterward, lawmakers will vote either in favor or against his government, a decision expected in the late afternoon or early evening.
To remain in power, Bayrou requires a majority of supportive votes. A majority against his initiatives would compel him to submit his government’s resignation to Macron, further escalating the ongoing political crisis.
Political Chaos
Macron is paying a heavy price for his drastic decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024, which led to legislative elections he hoped would consolidate control for his centrist alliance. The outcome has resulted in a fragmented legislature devoid of a decisive political bloc for the first time in the modern republic.
This political uncertainty hinders Macron's domestic ambitions during his second and final presidential term, which concludes in 2027. Without a manageable parliamentary majority for his centrist alliance, Macron has cycled through three prime ministers as he seeks to maintain stability and avert government collapse.
Bayrou now finds himself under pressure from both the far-right and left-wing lawmakers, collectively holding over 320 seats, while his centrists and allied conservatives only muster 210, making survival exceedingly difficult.
Frustrations mount as Bayrou questions the aggressive stance of rival factions against his government, emphasizing the discord among groups that technically oppose each other yet unite against him.
If Bayrou ultimately loses the vote, Macron will face the vexing task of finding a successor capable of navigating the same treacherous political waters and addressing relentless budgetary challenges. He has vowed to remain in his role until his term ends but risks becoming politically sidelined if deadlock persists.
Proposed spending cuts by Bayrou aim to tackle a budget deficit that eclipsed 5.8% of GDP last year, far exceeding the European Union's threshold of 3%. As of early 2025, France's public debt reached an alarming 3.346 trillion euros, equating to 114% of GDP, with debt servicing consuming about 7% of state expenditures.
Despite Bayrou's proposals, including the elimination of public holidays aimed at reducing expenditures, his plans face fierce opposition from political adversaries, who may seize this pivotal moment to challenge his leadership.
