France's parliament – deadlocked for a year and more poisonously divided than it has been in decades – looks set to throw out yet another prime minister on Monday.

But the acute sense of drama surrounding this latest vote of confidence inside Paris's Assemblée Nationale is counterbalanced by a despondent consensus that the almost inevitable removal of 74-year-old François Bayrou, after nine relatively ineffectual months in office, will do nothing to break France's political stalemate.

It's a disaster. The situation is absolutely blocked, veteran political commentator Bruno Cautrès told the BBC.

Others have been even harsher in their diagnosis.

Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the hard-right National Rally party, accused Bayrou of committing political suicide.

The prime minister, a consensus-seeking figure from south-west France with a tendency to frown and to bluster, initiated Monday's surprise vote himself, seeking, as he explained it, to shock politicians into agreeing on a way to tackle the country's looming debt crisis.

Describing France's spiralling national debt as a terribly dangerous period… a time of hesitation and turmoil, Bayrou warned there was a high risk of disorder and chaos if parliament failed to back his austerity budget with its aim to slash government spending by €44bn (£38bn).

Bayrou says young people will be saddled with years of debt payments for the sake of the comfort of boomers, if France fails to tackle a national debt of 114% of its annual economic output.

But Bayrou's gamble looks almost certain to end in failure, as it appears clear he simply doesn't have the votes to sustain confidence.

At the heart of this crisis is President Emmanuel Macron's widely derided decision, in June 2024, to call a snap parliamentary election to clarify the balance of power in parliament.

The result was the exact opposite of clarity. French voters, increasingly unhappy with their brash, eloquent young president, edged towards the extremes, leaving Macron floundering with a weakened minority centrist government, and a parliament so divided that today many rival MPs cannot even bear to shake each other's hands.

Across France, sentiment is drifting towards the right and far-right, as seen by the enthusiastic reception received by Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally, among the public.

Bardella's supporters express frustration over taxes and rising prices, and many are drawn to his promise to prioritize French citizens over immigrants.

As protests loom, there is a palpable air of unease regarding Macron's handling of domestic issues, with a burgeoning grassroots movement calling for a nationwide strike.

It remains uncertain if Macron will call another quick election or seek to create a cooperative minority government as France grapples with mounting challenges.