Europe's Peace Plan for Ukraine: Roadblocks Ahead

The recent summit of European leaders unveiled a peace plan for Ukraine, but significant hurdles—including military readiness, US backing, and Russian opposition—pose serious challenges to its success.

The recent summit of 19 European leaders in London, led by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, sought to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the path towards peace. Central to the discussions was what Starmer refers to as a “coalition of the willing”, aimed at ensuring peace through military guarantees. However, the proposal faces considerable obstacles that may hinder its implementation.

One major challenge is the capability of European military forces. Over the years, many European nations have dramatically reduced their military resources, casting doubt on their ability to assemble a significant deterrent force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed the need for an international peacekeeping force of up to 200,000 troops to maintain a ceasefire along the extensive frontline with Russia. Realistically, Europe may struggle to muster even a fraction of that figure due to these decades of military cutbacks.

Air power plays a crucial role in any deterrent strategy, particularly for intelligence-gathering and repelling potential incursions. The capability to monitor Russian troop movements and respond effectively is vital, given that merely having ground troops in standby would not prevent a potential surge of Russian forces. Europe's reliance on US military support for capabilities such as Signals Intelligence and aerial refueling raises questions about the feasibility of an autonomous approach.

The future commitment of US resources hangs on whether former President Donald Trump, should he regain office, can be persuaded to endorse a military backstop for a European-led initiative in Ukraine. Trump's inclination appears to favor a direct deal with Russia, further complicating the prospect of American support for European engagement in the conflict.

Moreover, the Kremlin’s reluctance to accept a foreign military presence in Ukraine complicates the peace endeavor. With Russian forces reportedly achieving gains on the battlefield, the prospect of engaging in meaningful negotiations seems unlikely without significant concessions, including territorial losses for Ukraine.

Consequently, the unity of Europe in pursuing this peace plan requires not only strategic military partnerships but also navigating the complex dynamics of US influence and Russian ambitions in the region. With formidable hurdles ahead, the success of Europe’s peace initiative remains uncertain.