Welcome to the shutdown, 2025 edition. On Tuesday evening, the US Senate was unable to pass a spending bill that would have kept the US government funded, leading to significant federal operation cutbacks. At some point, this shutdown – like all the ones before it - will end. It may take days or weeks, but eventually, as public pressure grows, one side may yield.
Here are four scenarios for how the shutdown might resolve:
1. Democrats quickly break ranks
Senate Democrats rejected a Republican funding bill that would have temporarily sustained the government. However, this may foreshadow their impending defeat. Some Democrats, particularly those in battleground states, might feel immense electoral pressure and switch allegiances to the Republicans.
2. Democrats back down
If the shutdown drags on, Democrats may feel compelled to abandon their fight, especially as government employees, a key voter base, begin feeling the impact of late paychecks. The wider public frustration with stalled services could lead Democrats to conclude that continuing the shutdown might backfire on them.
3. Republicans make concessions
While Republicans currently believe they're in a position of strength, they may miscalculate public sentiment. Providing assurances about health insurance subsidies could allow for a compromise beneficial for both parties, potentially aiding their electoral prospects.
4. The shutdown stretches on (and both sides lose)
In a scenario where rhetoric dominates the political landscape, prolonged standoffs could lead to a 'pox on both houses’ outcome where voters disillusioned with both parties may favor newcomers promising substantial change in future elections.
This multiple-choice dynamic reflects America’s complex political tableau and highlights the urgency for a resolution as the public feels the repercussions of the current standstill.