In brief
The Belgian Federal Planning Office raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.4%, a climb from 3.7% published a month earlier. The current‑year forecast remains unchanged at 3.7%, with past inflation rates noted at 2.47% in 2025 and 3.14% in 2024. The report also outlines expectations for a related health index and the timing of its core benchmark upgrades.
On 4 November 2026, Brussels saw the Belgian Federal Planning Office announce it had raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 4.4%, a jump from the 3.7% figure issued a month earlier.
The updated estimate was reported by the Saudi Press Agency, which noted that the office had no change in the current‑year projection, keeping it at 3.7%.
In relation to recent inflation measurements, the office cited a 2.47% rate for 2025 and a 3.14% rate for 2024, giving context to the upward adjustment.
The announcement highlighted the role of the so‑called “health index,” a statistical measure that underpins the linkage between public‑sector wages, social compensation, and pension payouts to the cost‑of‑living developments.
According to the statement, that index is expected to record a year‑on‑year rise of 3.3% for the current year, and an increase of 4.5% in 2027, mirroring the uptick in the inflation forecast.
The office also projected that the core benchmark used to calculate compensations and salaries would surpass classic thresholds in November of the current year and again in February of the following year.
Previously, the planning office had projected the core benchmark to cross those thresholds in November 2026 and in April 2027, indicating a shift in expectations regarding the timing of wage‑linked adjustments.
No other media outlets corroborated the Saudi Press Agency’s reporting, and the Belgian government has not issued a separate statement on the revision.
There is no information in the report about the drivers behind the sharper forecast for 2027, such as changes in energy prices, fiscal policy, or supply‑chain disruptions.
The office did not offer a detailed breakdown of how the 4.4% figure was arrived at, whether through revised assumptions about core inflation components or updated expectations for commodity price movements.
The revised forecast also leaves open the question of how the higher inflation projection will influence monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and potential adjustments to wage‑setting mechanisms at the national level.
Given that the health index is a key factor in determining public‑sector wage increases, any change in its trajectory could have ripple effects across the labor market and social security system.
Overall, the announcement signals a reassessment of Belgium’s inflation outlook but provides limited detail on the specific economic indicators that drove the adjustment.
The reported changes underscore the uncertainties surrounding the underlying assumptions, the role of energy and commodity prices, and the timing of core benchmark revisions versus past expectations.
