Trump’s Shadow Cast Long Over BRICS Summit in Delhi

The 2026 BRICS summit in New Delhi unfolds with an undercurrent of tension as the presence of former US President Donald Trump’s policy environment weighs heavily on the proceedings. Though not a member, Trump’s trade wars and diplomatic stance are expected to influence the conversation among the 13‑member collective.

Brics now includes twelve automatic members – India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, UAE, Iran and Saudi Arabia (invited) – and two new economies: Ethiopia and Indonesia. The diverse set of interests creates friction, particularly around the ongoing conflict in Iran and the global impact of US tariffs that threaten energy markets.

Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council argues that India will eschew a bluntly critical statement, preferring vague language that does not upset its fragile ties with the United States, China and even the UAE which hosts US military bases. Russia and Iran may push for a more outspoken position, yet consensus is unlikely given the group’s varied incentives.

Trump’s chief warning – that BRICS would face “100 % tariffs” if it moved toward a new global currency – underscores the importance of the group’s internal cohesion. Brics, however, tends to pursue a pragmatic stance by focusing on concrete achievements such as the New Development Bank and a $100 bn contingency reserve.

The New Delhi summit is also a platform for high‑level bilateral meetings. Modi will brief China’s Xi on a slow‑paced re‑connexion as well as share trade‑deficit concerns, while a meeting with Putin aims to discuss the war in Ukraine and potential future cooperation. These ties underline India’s desire to assert leadership of the Global South, a role that has seen limited success in Africa and Latin America due to China’s influence.

Beside the diplomatic talks, the summit’s success hinges on a collective statement. Past efforts, such as in May when foreign ministers could not agree on a joint declaration, have shown the difficulty. India’s experience as a 2023 G20 host, however, may be a decisive factor in steering consensus and ensuring a substantive outcome that highlights BRICS’s accomplishments without risking confrontation with Washington.

As the week unfolds, observers note the strategic importance of Delhi’s defense‑tightened security and the intricate balance India must maintain between short‑term trade gains and the long‑term ambition to shape a multipolar world.