Nicholas Strahl has always been able to find extra work around the holidays. But this year has been the exception.

Mr. Strahl, 41, works as a part-time retail sales associate at an office supplies store just outside Indianapolis, Indiana. When the holiday season rolls around, he typically seeks additional work to help cover bills and holiday gifts for family and friends. However, this year, he has found it increasingly difficult. He began applying for seasonal jobs in early October, but despite reaching out to CVS, Best Buy, and numerous other retailers, he has yet to land a position.

Seasonal hiring is poised to drop to its lowest level since the aftermath of the 2008 recession, according to the National Retail Federation. The pullback reflects caution among US businesses amidst tariffs and consumer anxiety, ultimately resulting in fierce competition as more job seekers vie for limited vacancies.

Strahl shared, “I've never seen the job market like this - it's pretty crazy. It doesn't really leave a lot of power for people who just want to get a job or have a supplemental income.”

Predictions are dismal: retailers are expected to hire only between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, a significant decrease from 442,000 in 2024. Economic analyst agencies like Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggest that factors including inflation, tariffs, and an increase in automation are dampening demand for temporary staff.

If Strahl can’t secure holiday employment, he plans to make adjustments, cutting back on gifts and postponing car repairs, willing to accept any job opportunity that comes his way.

Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, described the current labor market as being “frozen with frostbite,” noting that while seasonal postings remain stable compared to last year, larger numbers of candidates are competing for fewer positions. The recent government shutdown has further complicated the release of official labor market data, while the October reports have shown a 22% drop in job openings in the retail sector compared to the previous year.

For some retailers, such as Hobby Works, a chain of toy stores in Maryland, the uncertain economic climate has forced a delay in seasonal hiring. President Michael Brey explained that their usual timeline for bringing on new staff is now being pushed back due to concerns over spending patterns among government workers affected by the shutdown.

Strahl isn’t alone in his struggle; many job seekers, like 52-year-old Tanya Secord, have experienced similar setbacks. After sending applications to major retailers without success, her stress levels rise as she feels the mounting cost of living affecting her financial situation.

The caution among retailers and the rising competition for seasonal jobs signal a potential shift in the holiday employment landscape, where job seekers may not find the opportunities they once did.