Midterms 2026: The Vote That Could Redraw Trump’s Legacy


Four weeks until the U.S. midterm elections could shift the balance of Congress and determine the future of President Trump’s agenda.



Illustration of the US Capitol with red and blue campaign-style stripes and stars representing the two main political parties.
The US Capitol represents the two main political parties on the brink of a new political era.


What are the midterms?


On 3 November, voters will elect all 435 House members and 35 of 100 Senators. These elections, held midway through a president’s four‑year term, decide which party controls Congress and, indirectly, the direction of national policy.


Who is being elected?


House members serve two‑year terms and are where most bills are first debated. Senators serve six‑year terms and hold the power to approve or block legislation passed by the House. State governorships in key swing states such as California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan are also on the ballot.


Key issues on the ballot


Voters focus on the economy: rising prices for fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare keep inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target, partly because of the recent U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict. Trade tariffs and immigration policy are also at the forefront, with Republicans touting border enforcement successes and Democrats pointing to the cost of trade restrictions. AI regulation has become urgent, with bipartisan agreement on the need for oversight that Trump has opposed.


What’s at stake?


Currently Republicans hold both chambers, but their narrow majorities (218 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate) mean that a swing of even a few seats could flip control. Democratic gains would enable investigation into issues such as immigration enforcement, the new White House ballroom and potential impeachment proceedings. Republican control would preserve Trump’s legislative agenda.


Who might win?


Presidential approval is low; polls show Trump’s rating near 37% with 61% disapproval, a common pattern of incumbents losing ground in midterms. While many races are safe for one party, about nine Senate and 42 House seats are competitive, especially in states with pending redistricting battles. Five key Senate games in Iowa and New Hampshire and several House races in Arizona and Ohio demand close attention.


Implications for Trump and the 2028 election


A Democratic majority would hinder Washington’s legislative push and provide a platform for investigations. It could also pave the way for Democratic impeachment of Trump—an unprecedented step that remains debated within the party. Whether Republicans retain control or Democrats take over will shape policy direction for the rest of Trump’s term and influence speculation about the 2028 presidential race, as potential successors emerge from both parties.