The El Niño phenomenon, a natural Pacific weather pattern that raises global temperatures, has officially begun, NOAA announced. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have crossed the 0.5 °C above‑average threshold used to define an El Niño.
Forecasts indicate a 63 % chance that the event could become a very strong or even a super El Niño, a category of intensity where temperatures rise more than 2 °C above average.
Scientists warn that this warming phase will collide with an already‑heated planet and could push some regions into unprecedented heat. A very strong El Niño can raise global air temperatures by about 0.2 °C, which on top of climate change creates a perfect storm for extreme weather.
The twin impacts include flooding in northern Peru, southern Ecuador and parts of East Africa, and droughts and wildfires in Australia, Indonesia and northern South America. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter, but Central America may face drier conditions and higher food‑price volatility.
“An El Niño declaration is a deadly siren for millions of people,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa. “It can mean failed rains, dying crops and families pushed to the edge.”
The United Kingdom may see a mild start to winter and a cold end, though the link is loose. The forecast is not abstract, it’s a warning that the world could see its hottest year since 2050 if these conditions persist.
NOAA’s outlook suggests El Niño will develop later this year and may be long‑lasting. The contrasting criteria of B‑Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology show a more cautious approach, noting the need for temperatures to exceed 0.8 °C above average to declare a full event.
While no definitive proof links climate change to stronger or more frequent El Niño events, a warming world supercharges their effects. In 2024 and 2025 already the planet recorded record temperatures with modest El Niño influence.
Looking ahead, the Met‑Office predicts high global temperatures until 2027, possibly surpassing 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels, with significant implications for food and water security worldwide.
