In brief
Trump's inclination towards transactional politics could reshape US-Africa relations, continuing a departure from traditional diplomacy while creating scenarios for both peace and conflict across the continent.
As Donald Trump prepares for his return to the White House, predictions for his administration's impact on Africa abound. Historical patterns suggest a disdain for traditional diplomatic approaches favoring more transactional politics, which may yield both opportunities and threats in various regions across the continent.In the Obama era, the US collaborated with the African Union (AU) to reform United Nations funding rules for peacekeeping, empowering African-led missions. However, the first Trump administration initiated a retreat from these efforts, witnessing no new peacekeeping missions under the UN or AU auspices. The Biden presidency maintained this trajectory, indicating a significant shift in US strategy.Traditionally, the concept of "liberal peace," which advocated for democracy and human rights alongside economic development, formed the bedrock of US policy. However, African leaders, having experienced challenges with Western prescriptions, sometimes favored Trump's straightforward approach over the ambiguity of multilateralism. His policies leaned toward direct negotiations, enabling deals with nations like Egypt, Morocco, and Israel without consideration for broader human rights implications.One prominent instance occurred when Trump intervened in the contentious dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over water rights linked to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Trump’s suggestion to Egypt regarding military action underscored an alarming turn towards brute force in negotiations rather than diplomatic engagement. Additionally, the recognition of Morocco's claim over Western Sahara in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel truncated traditional diplomatic processes previously championed by the US.The current conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia present significant challenges. The ongoing violence in Sudan has resulted in catastrophic humanitarian conditions, exacerbated by regional power players like Egypt's military support to one faction and UAE's contributions to another. Trump's anticipated return could invite further complexity, promoting an environment where volatile leaders risk escalating conflict without impending US oversight.While some African nations enjoy warmer relations with the US, such as Kenya's strategic partnerships, these might not leverage the broader challenges faced on the continent. If Trump engages West African dynamics through the lens of competing interests, primarily shaped by ongoing dialogues with Russia, tensions within the region could escalate further as leaders attempt to navigate new alliances.As African leaders gather to elect a new AU Commission chairperson, the conversation around peace and security is critical yet uncertain in the "Trump era." While there may be opportunities for negotiations, risks abound with potential deals in the hands of autocrats whose past actions challenge the foundations of democracy. The landscape of US-Africa relations is set for a turbulent evolution, characterized by a pivot toward transactional politics that may overlook Africa’s pressing need for sustained international cooperation.
