Concerns for US-India Relations Rise Among Indian Americans Ahead of 2024 Elections

While optimism for India’s future remains, Indian Americans express significant concerns about US-India relations if Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, as revealed in a recent survey.

Indian Americans express a mix of optimism about India's future and concern regarding the potential ramifications for US-India relations should Donald Trump seek a second term as president, according to a recent survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov. The 2024 Indian-American Survey, conducted in October, sheds light on the political sentiments among over five million Indian-origin residents in the US.

While affinity for India remains strong, there is unease about how the Trump administration might handle diplomatic relations with New Delhi. Recent events, including a US indictment of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and accusations of an assassination plot involving an Indian national on US soil, have further complicated the bilateral ties. The survey asked 1,206 adult Indian Americans about their views on President Biden’s handling of US-India relations compared to those of Trump.

Findings revealed a partisan divide, with 66% of Indian-American Republicans favoring Trump’s approach, while only 8% of Democrats share this sentiment. Conversely, half of Indian-American Democrats favor Biden's handling, illustrating the community's majority Democratic lean. The analysis comes in the wake of a February meeting where both Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised each other’s leadership but highlighted issues like India’s trade tariffs.

Regarding the “murder-for-hire” allegations, the survey found that only half of respondents were aware of the situation, which could indicate limited engagement with news surrounding US-India relations. The ideal perception among respondents about Modi’s leadership, with 47% believing India is on the right path, contrasts with their apprehensions about a Trump administration.

On the topic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, responses were mixed along party lines, with Democrats showing greater sympathy for Palestinians and Republicans exhibiting more pro-Israel sentiments. Notably, 40% believe President Biden has been overly favorable towards Israel amid ongoing violence.

As the political climate evolves leading up to the 2024 elections, Indian Americans are projected to continue leaning Democratic, although identification with the party has decreased from 56% in 2020 to 47% currently. This points to a community navigating the complexities of their identity, political beliefs, and the geopolitical landscape of US-India relations. Understanding these nuances is vital as they reflect broader shifts in opinion driven by both cultural and political dynamics.