Amid escalating tensions following a terrorist attack, India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty, raising questions about its ability to control water flow to Pakistan. Experts doubt India's capacity to sever water supply, while the implications for regional hydro-diplomacy and potential conflict loom large.
India’s Water Strategy: A Potential Tipping Point in India-Pakistan Relations?
India’s Water Strategy: A Potential Tipping Point in India-Pakistan Relations?
A closer look at India's recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and its implications for water management and bilateral tensions with Pakistan.
India's recent suspension of the longstanding Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan has reignited concerns over water security and bilateral relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, India accused Pakistan of harboring cross-border terrorism, prompting it to take several retaliatory measures, including halting the treaty that governs the use of six rivers in the Indus basin.
The IWT, established in 1960, has weathered significant diplomatic storms and military confrontations, standing as a model of transboundary water management. With India suspending the treaty, questions arise about its implications for the flow of the Indus River and its tributaries into Pakistan. India has claimed the need to reassess its water-sharing agreements, pointing to evolving demands for water in agriculture and energy, as well as climate change considerations.
Historically, Pakistan has voiced concerns regarding India's hydropower projects, fearing they undermine its water allotments under the treaty. Approximately 80% of Pakistan's agricultural output and a large portion of its hydropower generation are dependent on the Indus basin.
Experts foresee significant difficulties for India in attempting to halt or divert water flow from the Indus, as its physical infrastructure is inadequately equipped to contain the large volumes of water involved. Current hydropower facilities primarily harness flowing water without large storage capabilities. Efforts to enhance water infrastructure have been slow, facing both geological challenges and public opposition within India.
Furthermore, the evolving diplomatic landscape suggests that India may now have more flexibility regarding how it approaches its water management projects. Historically obliged to share flood data with Pakistan, India could potentially limit this exchange, which is crucial for improving both countries' disaster preparedness. This raises apprehensions about water usage becoming a strategic weapon, a scenario that might lead to what experts dub a "water bomb"—where sudden releases of water could cause flooding downstream.
While India faces formidable barriers in curbing water supply to Pakistan, experts warn that the consequences of uncoordinated management could adversely affect Pakistan, particularly during dry spells when water resources are more scarce. Amid these geopolitical tensions, the larger implications extend to regional control over water resources, particularly given China's growing influence in South Asia and its own water projects.
In this multi-faceted context, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty remains precarious, unresolved tensions could be pivotal in shaping the discourse on water availability and security in this sensitive region.
