Poland's Tight Presidential Race: A Battle of Ideologies

In an election viewed as a referendum on populism in Europe, Poland's presidential runoff on June 1, 2025, concluded with candidates Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki virtually tied, leading to uncertainty as official results start to unfold. Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, declared victory based on exit polls suggesting a narrow lead with 50.3% of the vote. His opponent, nationalist historian Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party, remained hopeful, proclaiming his campaign would ultimately prevail. Voter turnout peaked at an impressive 72.8%, marking the highest in years and showcasing the critical nature of the election among Poland’s politically divided electorate.

The stakes of this election are high, serving as a barometer for the strength of populist nationalism across Europe. The contest drew interest across the Atlantic, with support from various political figures, including President Trump and Hungary's Viktor Orban for Nawrocki, while mainstream factions rallied behind Trzaskowski. With the potential for either candidate to tip the political balance in Poland, the outcome may determine the trajectory of governance in the face of ongoing national and global political pressures. The election could break a prolonged governmental stalemate if Trzaskowski secures the presidency, thus deciding whether Poland continues down a nationalistic path or shifts towards a more collaborative political landscape.

Anatol Magdziarz contributed reporting. Andrew Higgins is the East and Central Europe bureau chief for The Times based in Warsaw. He covers a region that stretches from the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to Kosovo, Serbia, and other parts of former Yugoslavia.