New Research Suggests Higher Palestinian Death Toll in Gaza Conflict

Researchers warn that the Palestinian death toll in Gaza could be significantly understated, based on their analysis published in The Lancet. While the health ministry reports around 37,877 deaths, estimates suggest the true figure might be between 55,298 to 78,525. The study utilized capture-recapture statistical methods to assess fatalities.

The ongoing war in Gaza has prompted new research that indicates the Palestinian death toll may be substantially higher than what is officially reported by the Hamas-run health ministry. A study published in The Lancet, led by UK researchers, analyzed data from the first nine months of conflict that began on October 7, 2023, after Hamas gunmen launched a surprise attack on Israel.

According to the research, which combines health ministry statistics with an online survey of relatives and obituaries, it estimates that as of June 30, 2024, around 64,260 Palestinians may have died from traumatic injuries. This suggests a 41% underreporting of fatalities. Although the UN generally views the health ministry's figures as reliable, there is ongoing controversy regarding the classification of casualties, with the ministry not distinguishing between combatants and civilians.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) contend that over 17,000 terrorists have been eliminated, but the basis for this assertion remains unclear. Israel also maintains that it targets only combatants while attempting to minimize civilian casualties. Amidst this conflict, international media, including major outlets like the BBC, have been restricted from accessing Gaza, complicating efforts to verify on-the-ground facts.

Using a statistical approach known as "capture-recapture," the study's team assessed how often individuals appeared in various death count attempts. The overlap in these datasets suggests the number of war-related deaths could be much greater than hospital figures reflect. The Lancet report estimated 55,298 to 78,525 deaths due to trauma, compared to the health ministry's reported 37,877.

Researchers admit that their findings could vary significantly based on how deaths are classified, particularly in accurately identifying traumatic injury cases. The report disclosed that 59% of individuals killed, where age and sex data were available, were women, children, and the elderly.

The backdrop of these findings includes a devastating Hamas attack that resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities and the capture of 251 individuals taken as hostages. In response, Israel commenced an extensive military offensive against Gaza, further complicating the humanitarian crisis, which the health ministry claims has led to the death of 46,006 people, predominantly civilians. This raises pressing questions about the accuracy and integrity of casualty reports in a tumultuous conflict.