Record Surge in CO2 Levels Threatens Global Climate Goals

Scientists confirm a record spike in CO2 emissions, reaching levels over 50% higher than pre-industrial times, raising alarms about meeting the global warming limit of 1.5C outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Planet-warming gas levels surged dramatically in 2024, as scientists warned that global climate targets are increasingly at risk. The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere observed an unprecedented rise, marking the highest levels ever recorded—greater than 50% above the baseline established at the dawn of industrialization. As fossil fuel emissions reached new peaks, the planet struggled to contain CO2 absorption due to widespread droughts and rampant wildfires.

The escalating CO2 levels pose significant challenges to the global commitment to limit temperature increases to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, as highlighted by the Met Office. The catastrophic heatwave in India earlier this year was just one manifestation of what experts are labeling as the hottest year on record. Although this spike in annual average temperatures does not fully negate the longer-term Paris Agreement goals, it means that ongoing CO2 emissions will ultimately compromise those aspirations.

Richard Betts from the Met Office expressed concern over these worsening figures. "The rapidly increasing CO2 levels are incompatible with an effort to meet the 1.5C target, and instead, they suggest we are heading in the wrong direction," he warned.

In particular, the role of human activity—chiefly via fossil fuel consumption and deforestation—has been identified as the driving force behind this long-term increase in CO2 levels, which echo conditions not witnessed in two million years. Data from the Global Carbon Project indicated a record rise of nearly 3.6 parts per million (ppm) between 2023 and 2024, culminating in an alarming concentration of CO2 exceeding 424 ppm.

The environmental repercussions are severe. Natural carbon sinks, which absorb about half of human-emitted CO2, were notably less effective this past year. Aside from human impacts, the El Niño phenomenon—characterized by warming ocean waters—exacerbated the situation by lowering natural absorption rates. Meanwhile, relentless wildfires and changing ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest, facing challenges from drought and deforestation, further diminish CO2 absorption capability.

Looking ahead, the Met Office predicts that while CO2 increases in 2025 may be less drastic than in 2024, they will remain considerably off-track for achieving the 1.5C target. Though La Niña conditions may temporarily induce cooler temperatures, experts warn that CO2 continues to accumulate, setting stage for further warming in the future. As Ralph Keeling from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pointed out, "We are swiftly entering uncharted territory as CO2 levels continue to rise at an alarming pace."