Asteroid 2024 YR4: Rising Risks and Their Implications for Earth

The asteroid 2024 YR4, detected recently, poses a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, with concerns remaining about its potential destruction.

Astronomers have sounded alarm bells regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, which they now deem to be the most likely sizable asteroid to threaten Earth. This 130 to 300-foot-long object, detected in December 2024, is expected to make a notably close encounter with our planet in 2032. An impact on December 22 of that year, currently assessed at a 3.1 percent probability, has surged past the earlier fears surrounding asteroid Apophis, which was projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of collision in 2029 before subsequent observations downgraded it to zero risk over the next century.

While 2024 YR4 is considerably smaller than Apophis, even minor asteroids can unleash considerable devastation depending on their entry point into Earth's atmosphere. Though the asteroid is unlikely to obliterate an entire country, a direct hit could severely damage or even destroy a major urban area. Predominantly, its trajectory runs over vast oceans, but several potential impact zones are alarmingly near populous cities such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai.

The potential destruction from an asteroid is primarily a function of its kinetic energy, which correlates with mass. Asteroids generally travel at a similar velocity—around 38,000 miles per hour—making mass a crucial factor in assessing possible damage. Currently, astronomers are working with limited observations, meaning the precise mass of 2024 YR4 remains elusive pending further study. "We cannot yet ascertain its density or composition, so the energy released upon impact or atmospheric explosion is still uncertain," commented physicist Mark Boslough from the Los Alamos National Laboratory.