Eritrea's Descent: A 30-Year Journey under Isaias Afwerki's Rule

Eritreans once optimistic about their leader now grapple with repression and despair as Afwerki's regime shows no signs of change.

For many Eritreans, the hope that surged during the early years of Isaias Afwerki's presidency in the 1990s has long faded into a reality of despair, as he continues to rule unchallenged for over three decades. Initially viewed as a beacon of hope and a reformist leader, the 79-year-old president has spent much of his time in seclusion at his rural residence near Asmara while power remains centralized in his hands, with no cabinet meetings since 2018. Isaias has never allowed elections and appears disinterested in doing so in the foreseeable future.

In the early 1990s, as Isaias emerged victorious as a rebel leader, there was widespread anticipation for democratic reforms in Eritrea. His initial promises for a new order resonated positively, and his cool reception in the West garnered further support. In a historic 1993 leaders' summit, he denounced aging leaders who clung to power, pledging democracy and socio-economic progress for Eritrea. The international community celebrated Eritrea’s nascent freedom, and by 1997, a new constitution was approved, fueling hopes for a multiparty system.

However, these hopes unraveled with the outbreak of the Eritrea-Ethiopia war in 1998, after which the promise of elections was indefinitely postponed. The perceived abuse of power culminated in an open letter from a group of senior officials, known as the G-15, demanding reforms. In a dramatic turn, the government silenced independent media in September 2001, detaining critical journalists and arresting G-15 members, leading many Eritreans to realize that Isaias had no intention of allowing democratic governance.

Despite moments suggesting a softening stance, like internal discussions about a new constitution in 2014, substantive change has yet to materialize. Many officials now feel powerless, with Isaias effectively dismantling institutions that could challenge his authority. The country now grapples with a struggling economy exacerbated by rampant state control, leaving Eritreans, particularly youth subjected to indefinite national service, feeling trapped and oppressed.

As hundreds of thousands have fled oppressive conditions, including treacherous journeys in search of safety, the unyielding grip of Isaias continues. Frustration within Eritrea grows, compounded by his retreat from public affairs and increasing isolation on the global stage, seeking ties with Russia and China. Amid discontent, Isaias still garners a faction of loyalty, particularly from military circles and some diaspora members who see him as a symbol of resistance.

As he approaches 80, questions about succession loom. An unsuccessful plan to promote his son as a successor highlights the lack of a clear transition strategy, leaving many to wonder about Eritrea's uncertain future if Isaias were to step down. For now, the nation remains in a state of anxiety as the president controls the nation's fate, culminating in an unyielding wait for a future of hope and change.